MBI Videos
Workshop 1: Sustainability and Complex Systems
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Volker GrimmIndividual-based Ecology: Theories, Predictions, Simplifications
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Sergei PetrovskiiSustainability of agroecosystems: insights from the multiscale insect pest monitoring
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James HymanWe have developed a network-patch model for the spread of mosquito-borne pathogens, including chikungunya, dengue, and West Nile virus. The model accounts for the movement of individual people through mosquito habitats that respond to environmental factors, such as rainfall and temperature. Our approach extends the capabilities of existing agent-based models for human movement developed to predict the spread of directly transmitted pathogens in human populations. These agent-based models are combined with differential equations representing clouds of mosquitoes in geographic patches that account for heterogeneity in mosquito density, mosquito emergence rates, and the extrinsic incubation period of the pathogen. I will illustrate the importance of heterogeneity in both human and mosquito populations on disease spread. The new hybrid agent-based/differential equation model can help quantify the importance of heterogeneity in predicting the spread and invasion of mosquito-borne pathogens and extend the capabilities of existing agent-based models to include vector-borne diseases. This research is in collaboration with Carrie Manore, Kyle Hickmann, Ivo Foppa, Dawn Wesson, Chris Mores, and Sara Del Valle.
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Alan HastingsRole of time scales in sustainability of complex systems
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Yannis KevrekidisIn current modeling practice for complex systems, including agent-based and network-based simulations, the best available descriptions of a system often come at a fine level (atomistic, stochastic, individual-based) while the questions asked and the tasks required by the modeler (parametric analysis, optimization, control) are at a much coarser, averaged, macroscopic level. Traditional modeling approaches start by deriving macroscopic evolution equations from the microscopic models. I will review a mathematically inspired, systems-based computational enabling technology that allows the modeler to perform macroscopic tasks acting on the microscopic models directly in an input-output mode. This “equation-free� approach circumvents the step of obtaining accurate macroscopic descriptions. I will discuss applications of this approach and its linking with recent developments in data mining algorithms, exploring large complex data sets to find good "reduction coordinates".
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Volker GrimmThe ODD protocol: a standard format for describing individual-based and agent-based models.
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Volker GrimmWhen do we want to develop an individual-based model instead of a more aggregated one?
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Alan HastingsRicker models and complexity in ecology
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Damaris ZurellThe virtual ecologist is an intuitive and widely used approach which includes simulating artificial species or ecosystem data, an observer that collects data according to a specific sampling protocol, the statistical analysis or modelling of the collected data and subsequent evaluation of the results against known (virtual) truth. In my talk, I will briefly review the concept and existing examples. For example, in global change research this approach holds great potential for rigorous testing of different modelling methods under controlled and changing conditions and with controlled sampling bias. Specifically, I want to emphasize the merit of using complex dynamic simulation models for simulating data and observers. This ingredient takes the virtual ecologist approach beyond simple proof of concept making it a truly integrative and rigorous framework not only for testing sampling protocols or modelling and analysis tools but for theory development and testing more generally.
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Mark LewisAquaculture and Sustainability of Coastal Ecosystem